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תיבת הדוגמאות - ניתוחים פיננסיים נבחרים
אתם נמצאים בתיבת הדוגמאות שלי. תוכלו למצוא כאן ניתוחים פיננסיים ערכיים נבחרים, שאוגדו על-ידי כדי לתת דוגמא בניתוח עסקים והערכת שוויים. כששאלו את וורן באפט כיצד הוא חושב שראוי ללמד באוניברסיטאות ניתוח חברות והערכת שווי למטרות השקעה, הוא אמר שזה די פשוט - צריך לנתח חברה אחר חברה אחר חברה אחר חברה. הווי אומר, דוגמאות הן השיעור הטוב ביותר. מסיבה זו העלתי לדף זה מספר לא קטן של ניתוחים נבחרים. אף שאני מכיר באופן טוב למדי (לדעתי) חלק מהאנשים שעומדים מאחורי הניתוחים הללו (רובם מנהלי שותפויות וקרנות גידור ערכיות מצליחות. לא תמצאו כאן אנליזות sell side) ואף שבחרתי באופן אישי את הניתוחים הטובים ביותר שלהם (לדעתי), חשוב לזכור שאין אדם יודע את העתיד ובכל ניתוח פיננסי מסתתרים בהכרח הנחות שעשויות להתברר כשגויות וגורמים שעשויים לערער את נכונות הניתוח או חלקו. בדר"כ, רוב המנתחים בעמוד זה מתחשבים גם בכך, כאשר הם מתמקדים בעיקר על ה-downside ועל שולי בטחון גבוהים (margin of safety), קודם לניתוח הפוטנציאל ל-upside. כמו-כן חשוב להדגיש שאין מדובר בהמלצות קנייה, אלא באפשרות לחזות בקו המחשבה של מספר אנשים חכמים ובצורת הניתוח שלהם. מרבית הניתוחים נלקחו מהפורום המצויין של ג'ואל גרינבלאט (בדף מקורות המידע שלי תמצאו קישור אליו). רבים מהניתוחים מלווים בהערות שוליים שנתנו מנתחים חכמים אחרים. הערות אלו מהוות מקור ידע חשוב לא פחות מהניתוחים עצמם. לעיתים קרובות, הבנת עסק מסוים שמנותח בדף זה, תהיה לעזר רב בבחינת השקעה אחרת בעסק דומה בעתיד. ואידך זיל גמור...
הדוגמאות

Washington Group International, (WNG), David Einhorn, 2007
Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn normalizes earnings, critically argues against buyout price of large technical services group WNG, and disputes Morgan Stanley's fairness opinion (page 70 - valuation methods: mean and median EBITDA and Earnings multiples of sector comparables, discounted equity and cash flow value analysis, and precedent transactions analysis)

M&T Bank, (MTB), Emil Lee, Fool.com Caps, 2007
Reverse Engineering Buffett's 1991 M&T Bank 9% convertible bonds investment (converted 1996)

ICH / Simec, (ICHB-SIM pair trade), Gatsby, 2006
Accute mispricing in an interesting market neutral pair trade

Microsoft, (MSFT), David Einhorn, 2006
Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn uses simple normalized earnings multiples to show how cheap Microsoft is at $23 (Ira. W. Sohn Investment Research Conference)

Tommy Hilfiger Corporation (TOM), Sowood Capital Management, 2006
Sowood Capital Management LP, putting forth reasons against merger price (valuation methods: Sum-of-the-parts, Precedent Transactions, Trading Comparables, Discounted Cash Flow and Leveraged Buyout), superbly disputing JPMorgan's Fairness Opinion
CT Communications (CTCI), Fiftycent, 2006
RLEC (with ILEC, CLEC, Wireless and IDS operations), trading for half its peers' EV/EBITDA (valuation models discussed)
Pinnacle Airlines, (PNCL), Tank (2006)
Semi-bancurptcy airline situation with unsecured claims analysis and almost bullet-proof downside protection
Newkirk Realty Trust (NKT), Spence, 2006
Net lease REIT (real estate investment trust) run by Michael Ashner, trading under liquidation value
M.D.C. Holdings (MDC), Armand, 2006
Very good thread (read the comments) on homebuilders
Empire Resources, (short ERS), 2006
Overvalued aluminum order-taker, with declining margins and a single customer. Very good and simple idea.
Intrawest (IDR), Mark Sellers, 2005
Largest developer and operator of ski resort villages in North America with undervalued real-estate assets on balance sheet
Hallwood Group (HWG), Mark Sellers, 2005
Energy player with undervalued texan natural-gas reserves and textile operations
American Express (AXP), Danarb, 2005
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price"
(See also "Secret History of the Credit Card")
St. Joe (short JOE), Zach, 2005
Ratio valuation, asset (reserves) valuation and competitive analysis of biggest landowner/developer in Florida
Quilmes Industrial (Quinsa) (LQU), Charlie, 2005
Dominant beer brewer in South America, with qualitative and quantitative values
FootLocker (FL), Spence, 2005
Premier athletic footwear retailer, trading at a big discount to its intrinsic value
Too, Inc., (TOO), Spence, 2005
Mall based retailer focusing on girls (aged 7-14), trading at depressed EBIT margins
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa, BRKb), Nish, 2005
Conglomerate, property & casualty insurance, investments
Knightsbridge Tankers, (short VLCCF), Bafana (2005)
Owner of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) for the non-spot market, with a DCF model
Maxxam Inc., (MXM), Ro, 2003 (updated, Spence, 2005)
Asset rich holding company (timberlands, real estate and aluminum manufacturing and horse racing)
McDonalds (MCD), 2004
The one-hour, interactive session will use a case study approach (McDonald’s Corporation) and cover:
Advance preparation for the 10-Q release. Creating “common size” financial statements to spot trends the press release might have ignored. Reviewing the cash flow statement: What does it really say? What are the key questions to ask management based on the 10-Q filing.
Wal-Mart (WMT), 2005 (sequel, 2006)
How to Read and Understand Earnings Releases Like an Investment Pro. CFA Institute invites journalists to participate in a live, interactive Web forum to gain a better understanding of earnings releases and learn what each figure really means for a company’s growth. Topics discussed include:
What information the earnings reports reveal. How to understand the balance sheet, cash flow analysis, profitability ratios, and limitations of ratio analysis. How to determine what factors are affecting a company’s earningsLargest discount super-centers retailer in U.S.
(See also "Is Wal-Mart Good for America")
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY), Nish, 2004
One of the three largest pharmaceutical companies in India, trading for low free cash flow multiple
Moody's Corporation (MCO), Rob Goldstein, 2003
Rob Goldstein, Greenblatt's young partner in Gotham Capital, is playing with ROE and basing Gotham's year 2000 investment in Moody's, on Buffett's year 1998 Coca Cola investment.
Sportsman's Guide (SGDE), Charlie, 2003
Direct retailer (catalogs & web) of outdoor gear, trading for low free cash flow multiple
Tesoro Petroleum, (TSO), Nish, 2003
Oil refiner and marketer with regulatory moat
Frontline (FRO), Potato, 2001 (updated, 2002)
Largest owner of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) trading on the spot market
Fremont General Corp., (FMT), Raf, 2002
Financial services holding company trading at a low PE, with sizable NOL's
NII Holdings (NIHD), Charlie, 2002
International Wireless communication services provider, after bankruptcy, reorganization and Chapter 11
Sunrise Assisted Living (SRZ), Nish, 2002
Senior living services with strong balance sheet and undervalued real-estate on book
Level 3 Communication (LVLT) Bonds, Nish, 2002
Broadband player with undervalued bonds and a high profile chairman
Harvest Natural Resources, (HNR), Ran, 2002
Microcap oil exploration, exploitation and development corporation with Venezuelan properties
CNS, Inc., (CNXS), Spence, 2002
Healthcare medical appliances & equipment, buying back large stakes and selling for low EBIT margins
American Physicians Capital, (ACAP), Spence, 2002
Medical malpractice and workers compensation insurance company, selling for half of tangible book value
Industrias Bachoco, (IBA), Michael, 2002
Leading poultry producer in Mexico, trading for very low valuation
NVR, Inc. (NVR), Charlie, 2001
Homebuilder with a unique operating model (options contracts)
Wellsford Real Properties, (WRP), Michael, 2001
REOC (real estate operating company), selling for half book value
GTSI Corp, (GTSI), Michael, 2001
Distributes technology products to the military, the IRS and others (B2G), with a 'spike trading' strategy
American Community Properties Trust (APO), Robert Chapman, 2000
Widely known 13-D letter originator, putting forward his thesis on this acutely undervalued real-estate microcap play
ValueClick, (VCLK), Michael, 2000
Online marketing asset play
Huttig Building Products, (HBP), Michael, 2000
Leading distributor of building products such as doors, windows and trim
MediTrust, (LQI), Mike, 2000
Paired share REIT, selling at a significant discount to book value
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa, BRKb), Alice Schroeder, 1999
Conglomerate, property & casualty insurance, investments
Value Investigator - Irwin Michael, manager of the ABC family of funds, selects 15-20 stocks from his portfolio holdings as his ABC Value Favorites and offer a brief discussion of their fundamental merits.
ValueDog - This site, devoted to identifying undervalued stocks, is based on the work of faculty, PhD students and MBA students at the University of Michigan Business School.
Yale Student Analysts Reports - Dozens of company and industry analyses written by Yale school of management students.
דוגמאות לניתוח ביקורתי
Taro Pharmaceuticals Industries (TARO), Glass Lewis, 2004
Pharmaceutical products and ingredients
Alliance Gaming Corp. (AGI), Glass Lewis, 2004
Columbia Sportswear (COLM), CFRA, 2005
Textile, active outdoor apparel
Wrongful Free Cash Flow Inclusions of Temporal Deposits - a 2nd Opinion top-quality forensic research of InterActive Corp (IACI), uncovering accounting shenanigans and cash flow discrepancies.
Bloated Inventory, Accounts Payable, DSOs, and related deferred tax liabilities - a 2nd Opinion top-quality forensic research of Cardinal Health (CAH).
Tashkif.com - The site of Uri Ronen, a critical financial analyst and commentator in TheMarker magazine and Ha-aretz newspaper, devoted to identifying accounting tricks and shenanigans.